AGI Risk Scenarios for Australia¶

Stress-test premise: Imagine that by the mid-2030s most Australian government departments and all four major banks rely on AI systems from the same three US firms. One provider threatens to restrict access unless Australia softens proposed transparency rules, and Canberra backs down. A security researcher later discovers that the system sends telemetry data to a foreign jurisdiction, but the system is too embedded to replace quickly.

Six scenarios for Australia¶

Each scenario illustrates a different threat pathway, grounded in Australian institutions, places and timeframes. They connect to the C·A·G·R framework and include questions to help you assess implications for your context.

Audience: Government, business and community leaders | Time: 20–30 minutes + scenario reading

For sector-specific exercise questions and action prompts, use the Sector Guidance.

Not all risks require misaligned AI¶

The scenarios fall into three categories:

Focus on capabilities, not definitions¶

AI strategy can get stuck debating the definition of "AGI". These scenarios instead focus on capabilities—what systems can actually do and who can access them.

This means preparing for a security environment where:

• Capabilities arrive effectively "for free": As general reasoning improves, systems gain specialised skills (cyber-offence, persuasion, bioweapon design) without explicit training for those purposes
• Access lowers barriers: Advanced capabilities that previously required nation-state resources become accessible to smaller actors

The practical question is not whether a system meets one AGI definition, but whether a capability changes Australia's exposure or ability to respond.

As Joel Predd argues from work at RAND's Center for the Geopolitics of AGI, the significance of AGI is that specific capabilities could come “for free” with more general systems—without needing a separately developed specialist AI.

How scenarios connect: compounding effects¶

Real crises can activate several threat pathways at once:

• Power concentration + information ecosystem strain: Provider concentration makes democratic accountability harder during a crisis.
• Gradual disempowerment + critical infrastructure failure: Institutions cannot revert quickly when manual capability has atrophied.
• Information ecosystem degradation + any scenario: Low trust makes coordinated response harder.

For planning: When running exercises, deliberately combine 2-3 scenarios to test responses under compounding stress.

For why Australia faces distinctive vulnerabilities and strengths, see Why does Australia need AGI preparedness?. For why preparation matters now despite timeline uncertainty, see AGI Timelines.